Avi Greengart is the Research Director for Consumer Devices at Current Analysis (Cellphones, Connected Devices, and Digital Home). He also writes for Slashgear, blogs at Home Theater View and Tweets as @AviGreengartAvi's expertise lies in understanding consumer electronics marketing, consumer behavior, and technology adoption patterns: where new technologies meet the mass market. 

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Current Analysis clients (and journalists with press accounts - contact me if you need one) have access to reports and competitive assessments on mobile devices through the Current Analysis Consumer Portal, which also includes pricing, availability, features, and trending data on nearly every handset in the U.S. market.

Apple 9/1/10 Event Predictions

I will be attending Apple's Special Event live on Wednesday. Here's what I expect (please note: these are educated guesses. I've been pretty good at this in the past - Apple is a highly disciplined product development company - but this is SPECULATION. Journalists and bloggers, please do not quote this as fact or from "a person familiar with the matter," or "an analyst briefed by Apple."):

bulletUpdated sales numbers on iPads and iPhone 4. They may have broken 5 million each, and I fully expect Steve to say that "we're selling them as fast as we can build them." As far as the free bumper/case program goes, I expect Apple will keep it going for another month or two, and then transition to including an Apple bumper in the box. Is it possible that Apple will announce a new iPhone with a coating on the antenna? Yes, but I don't expect that at this event.
bulletThere will be a new version of iTunes. Possibly with web storage/download aspect.
bulletiPods:
bulletApple will introduce a new iPod nano with touchscreen controls instead of buttons, which enables the nano to shrink down in size, going from rectangular to square. The new starting price point will be $129. They will be cute as all hell, they will come in four or six different colors, and I will want one.
bulletNew iPods: the iPod touch will split into two lines: a budget model for $199, and an iPhone 4-like line that starts at $299. The budget line will keep the same screen, but will pick up a front facing camera for Facetime, a microphone, GPS and a gyroscope. It may get an A4 processor as well; the decision will hinge on price point - the entry level iPod touch is all about hitting the $199 mark. The premium line will get all that plus the retina display, A4 processor, and more memory. However, I don't think Apple will put a 5 MP camera in the iPod touch because the camera unit would take up too much space, and the new iPod touch will be magically thinner than the last one.
bulletNew iPods: If Apple introduces a 128 MB iPod touch, they will probably kill the 160GB Classic line. Otherwise, the Classic will get a price drop but will otherwise remain unchanged.
bulletNew iPods: if there's a new shuffle, it will be a minor update.
bulletApple will note that these are the greenest MP3 players on the planet.
bulletiPad: the iOS 4 release date should be announced (it can't come soon enough if you ask me). If Apple could get more IPS screens it wouldn't completely shock me if Apple dropped the price on the iPad ahead of the holiday sales season - Apple did that with the original iPhone - but with the current manufacturing constraints, I don't see it. I expect an iPad with a front-facing Facetime camera early next year, but don't expect we'll get one at this event.
bulletAccessories: Apple will probably tweak its aftermarket headphones and may launch a line of iPod touch cases. Or not. I can never accurately guess what accessory markets Apple thinks are worth entering.
bulletAppleTV: I am based on the East Coast, and Apple events are on the other side of the country, so I am desperately hoping that this year's "one more thing" will be an overhaul of AppleTV to save me an extra trip. If not at this event, an update will be coming soon: the days of treating AppleTV as a hobby are coming to an end. The new AppleTV will be positively tiny, and will run iOS, enabling app developers to target the television. If this sounds like GoogleTV, it's because it is fairly similar, only AppleTV will actually have a deep content library behind it, rather than just being a search engine. The price point will have to be $99 to succeed, and Apple will explicitly go after Roku by showing off a Netflix app.

Journalists and clients: to reach me live after the event, email me with your phone number, or call me directly at +1 201 677 8AVI (8284).

8/25/10

My latest Slashgear column is up: Nokia's Featurephone Problem. My last Slashgear column was Competing in a Heated Android Market

 

Prior Greengart.com entries: July10, June10, Apr10, 1Q10, Oct09, July09, June09, May09, Apr09, Mar09, Feb09, Jan09, Dec08, Nov08, Oct08, Sept08, Aug08

Twitter

@AviGreengart

Slashgear Columns

bullet8/25/10 - Nokia's Featurephone Problem
bullet8/9/10 - Competing in a Heated Android Market
bullet6/25/10 - Nintendo v. Apple
bullet5/27/10 - GoogleTV: Good Idea, Poor Initial Execution
bullet4/29/10 - Microsoft's KIN and the Emergence of Tiered Featurephone Data Plans
bullet4/1/10 - Leaving Las Vegas, a CTIA Travelogue
bullet2/21/10 - Mobile OS Madness in Barcelona
bullet2/1/10 - Defending the iPad
bullet12/31/09 - Best Products of 2009
bullet11/27/09 - Should Nokia Abandon Symbian S60 for maemo Linux?
bullet10/19/09 - When Will Verizon Wireless Get the iPhone?

Public* Product Reviews

*Public = here and on blogs I write for; Current Analysis clients have access to hundreds of my reports and competitive product assessments

bullet10/25/09 - HomeTheaterView: Logitech Harmony 900 (first look)
bullet9/14/09 - HomeTheaterView: Monster Turbine Headphones
bullet12/18/08 - LiveDigitally: Last Minute, Mostly Non-Obvious Holiday Gift Guide… For A Bad Economy
bullet7/8/08 - HomeTheaterView: Monoprice 4.2 HDMI Switch
bullet6/5/08 - LiveDigitally: iPhone Case Roundup
bullet6/4/08 - Here on Greengart.com: Logitech VX Nano travel mouse
bullet5/29/08 - HomeTheaterView: Axiom Audio Audiobytes and EPZero Subwoofer
bullet5/26/08 - HomeTheaterView: mStation 2.1 Stereo Tower
bullet3/11/08 - HomeTheaterView: Accell 4x2 HDMI Switch
bullet12/22/07 - LiveDigitally: Last Minute Mostly Non-Obvious Tech Holiday Gift Guide for 2007. The Non-Obvious Last Minute 2006 Holiday Gift Guide is still available online, too.
bullet11/15/07 - HomeTheaterView: XtremeMac HDMI Switch
bullet9/10/07 - Here on Greengart.com: PLANon DocuPen RC800 Portable Scanner (part of the DocuPen Executive Pack)

RCR Wireless "Analyst Angle" (2007)

As part of a rotating group of analyst contributors I was asked to write a column for RCR Wireless. An index can be found here.

Current Analysis Spotlights (2005 - 2007)

Most of my reports on mobile devices are for Current Analysis clients only; however, Current Analysis Spotlights was a report format that was free for all from 2005 - 2007. An Index to my Spotlight reports can be found here.

AskAvi Columns (2001 - 2004)

I spent most of the 1990's in marketing and product management; while I was still at Intel I began writing weekly columns on consumer electronics. Those AskAvi columns are archived here.

Current Analysis Spotlights are copyright Current Analysis, Inc. and are reprinted with permission. All submissions to Greengart.com become the property of Greengart.com. For AskAvi submissions, Greengart.com retains all copyrights to both the questions and answers - don't send us anything you intend to copyright or patent. Not all submissions will be answered.

 

© 2002-2006 Avi Greengart